Rajasthan

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Major Geopolitical Issues ​

Russia-Ukraine ​

  • Origins: Tensions trace back to Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan uprising, ousting a pro-Russian president, followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas.
  • Full-Scale Invasion: On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, aiming to “demilitarize” and “denazify” it, escalating the conflict significantly.
  • Territorial Control: Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, though Ukraine has reclaimed some areas via counteroffensives.
  • Western Support: NATO and EU countries provide Ukraine with billions in military aid, weapons, and sanctions against Russia, avoiding direct troop involvement to prevent escalation.
  • Economic Impact: Global energy and food prices soared due to disrupted Ukrainian grain exports and Russian oil/gas sanctions, straining economies worldwide.
  • Nuclear Tensions: Russia’s nuclear rhetoric and military drills raise fears of broader conflict, though no nuclear escalation has occurred yet.
  • Human Cost: Millions of Ukrainians displaced, thousands killed, and widespread destruction reported, with war crimes allegations on both sides under investigation.
  • Stalemate: By 2025, the war shows signs of a prolonged stalemate, with neither side achieving decisive victory, and peace talks stalled over territorial and security demands.

Israel-Palestine ​

  • Origins: Rooted in the 1948 establishment of Israel, displacing Palestinians (Nakba), followed by decades of territorial disputes, wars, and failed peace processes.
  • Key Territories: Israel controls most of historic Palestine, with Palestine limited to the West Bank (partially) and Gaza, both under varying degrees of Israeli military oversight.
  • Gaza Escalation: The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack killed over 1,200 Israelis, prompting a massive Israeli offensive, devastating Gaza and killing tens of thousands, per local reports.
  • Occupation and Settlements: Israel’s expansion of West Bank settlements, deemed illegal under international law, fuels Palestinian resentment and hinders statehood prospects.
  • International Involvement: The U.S. provides Israel with significant military and diplomatic support, while Arab states and others back Palestine, though normalization deals (e.g., Abraham Accords) shift regional dynamics.
  • Humanitarian Crisis: Gaza faces severe shortages of food, water, and medical care; West Bank Palestinians endure restrictions, violence, and displacement.
  • Peace Efforts: Ceasefire attempts and two-state solution talks repeatedly fail due to mutual distrust, territorial claims, and political divisions within both sides.
  • Current State: By 2025, the conflict remains volatile, with sporadic violence, no clear resolution, and deepening humanitarian and political challenges for both Israelis and Palestinians.

United States-Iran relations ​

  • Early Ties: Relations began in the 19th century with mutual interest; the U.S. supported Iran against British and Russian influence until the 1953 CIA-backed coup ousted PM Mossadegh, restoring the Shah.
  • Alliance Under Shah: From the 1950s to 1970s, Iran was a key U.S. ally, receiving military and nuclear support, peaking with Nixon’s 1972 visit, though domestic unrest grew.
  • 1979 Revolution: The Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah, leading to the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis (444 days), severing diplomatic ties in 1980; Switzerland and Pakistan became intermediaries.
  • Hostility Escalates: The 1980s saw U.S. support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War, followed by incidents like the 1988 downing of an Iranian airliner by a U.S. ship.
  • Nuclear Tensions: Iran’s nuclear program, revealed in the 2000s, led to U.S.-led sanctions; the 2015 JCPOA deal eased tensions until Trump’s 2018 withdrawal reimposed "maximum pressure."
  • Proxy Conflicts: Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas clashed with U.S. backing of Israel and Gulf states, fueling regional strife.
  • Recent Developments: By 2025, Trump’s push for talks contrasts with Iran’s rejection of direct negotiations, while military posturing (e.g., B-2 bombers) signals potential escalation.
  • Current State: Relations remain tense, marked by distrust, nuclear standoffs, and indirect talks via Oman, with no formal diplomacy.

Diego Garcia sovereignty dispute ​

  • Historical Context: Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Archipelago, was detached from Mauritius by Britain in 1965 to form the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), prior to Mauritius’ 1968 independence.
  • Military Base: In 1966, the UK leased Diego Garcia to the US for a strategic military base, forcibly displacing 1,500-2,000 Chagossians between 1968 and 1973 to Mauritius and Seychelles.
  • Mauritian Claim: Mauritius has claimed sovereignty over the Chagos since independence, arguing the detachment violated UN rules against splitting colonies pre-independence.
  • Legal Rulings: In 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled Britain’s control unlawful, a stance backed by a UN General Assembly vote (116-6), though non-binding.
  • 2024 Agreement: On October 3, 2024, the UK agreed to cede sovereignty to Mauritius, retaining control of Diego Garcia for 99 years under a renewable lease, ensuring the base’s operation.
  • US Role: The US, a key stakeholder, supports the deal to maintain its vital Indian Ocean military presence, despite initial concerns over sovereignty transfer.
  • Chagossian Issue: The agreement allows resettlement on outer islands but not Diego Garcia, leaving Chagossian repatriation demands partially unmet.
  • Current Status: As of April 2025, treaty finalization is pending, with Trump’s approval noted, though some Mauritian activists push to close the base.

South China Sea disputes ​

  • Territorial Claims: China claims over 80% of the South China Sea via its "nine-dash line," overlapping with exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, based on historical assertions.
  • Key Areas: Disputes center on the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, and Scarborough Shoal, rich in fish, oil, and gas, and critical for shipping lanes handling $3.4 trillion in trade annually.
  • Historical Conflicts: China seized the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974 and clashed over the Spratlys in 1988; tensions with the Philippines escalated over Scarborough Shoal in 2012.
  • Legal Ruling: The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling favored the Philippines, rejecting China’s claims as unlawful under UNCLOS, though China dismissed it.
  • Militarization: China has built artificial islands, deployed radar (e.g., Triton Island, 2024), and increased naval presence, prompting US "freedom of navigation" patrols.
  • Recent Incidents: In 2024, Philippines-China vessel collisions near Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal heightened tensions; the US condemned China’s actions.
  • Diplomacy: ASEAN pushes for a Code of Conduct, but progress is slow; bilateral deals (e.g., Philippines-China oil MoU) remain limited.
  • Current State: Tensions persist with no resolution, risking broader US-China confrontation amid mutual defense pacts with allies like the Philippines.

Taiwan tensions : ​

  • Historical Roots: Taiwan considers itself the Republic of China (ROC) since 1949, when the Nationalist government fled there after losing the Chinese Civil War to the Communists, who established the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
  • PRC Claim: China views Taiwan as a breakaway province, insisting on reunification under its "One China" policy, which most nations acknowledge but don’t formally endorse Taiwan’s independence.
  • US Role: The US, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, provides defensive arms to Taiwan without recognizing it as a sovereign state, shifting from formal ties with the ROC to the PRC in 1979.
  • Military Buildup: China has intensified military drills, including 125 warplane sorties in October 2024, while Taiwan bolsters defenses with US-supplied weapons like F-16Vs and submarines.
  • Economic Stakes: Taiwan dominates global semiconductor production (e.g., TSMC), making its stability vital to the world economy, amplifying tensions.
  • Recent Escalations: In 2025, China’s coast guard seized a Taiwanese fishing boat near Kinmen, and Trump’s call with Taiwan’s leader signaled continued US support, irking Beijing.
  • Diplomatic Strain: Only 13 nations recognize Taiwan diplomatically; China pressures others to cut ties, as seen with Nauru in 2024.
  • Current Status: Risk of conflict looms, with no resolution, as China vows force if Taiwan declares independence, while the US balances deterrence and avoiding war.

North Korea-South Korea relations ​

  • Historical Division: The Korean Peninsula split in 1948 into North Korea (DPRK) and South Korea (ROK) after World War II, formalized by the 1950-53 Korean War, ending in an armistice, not a peace treaty.
  • Cold War Legacy: Relations remained hostile, with incidents like the 1968 assassination attempt on South Korea’s president and the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner by North Korea.
  • Sunshine Policy: South Korea’s Kim Dae-Jung (1998-2003) initiated reconciliation, leading to a 2000 summit with Kim Jong Il, family reunions, and joint Olympic appearances, though progress later stalled.
  • Nuclear Tensions: North Korea’s nuclear program, with tests in 2006 and beyond, strained ties; the 2016 Kaesong Industrial Complex closure marked a low point.
  • 2018 Thaw: Moon Jae-in’s diplomacy saw summits with Kim Jong Un, the Panmunjom Declaration, and temporary de-escalation, but talks faltered by 2020.
  • Hostile Shift: In 2024, North Korea declared South Korea its “principal enemy,” scrapped economic cooperation, severed ties, and demolished inter-Korean infrastructure.
  • Military Escalation: North Korea’s 2025 missile tests and troop deployments to Russia (e.g., 3,000 to Kursk) coincide with South Korea’s heightened military readiness.
  • Current State: Relations are at a historic low, with no dialogue, mutual hostility, and North Korea prioritizing Russia and China over South Korea.

US-China technology and trade war ​

  • Origins: Began in 2018 under Trump, targeting China’s alleged unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and forced technology transfers, escalating into a broader tech rivalry.
  • Tariff Escalation: US imposed tariffs on over $360 billion of Chinese goods; China retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion of US products, disrupting global supply chains.
  • Tech Focus: US restricted Chinese firms like Huawei from accessing American tech (e.g., semiconductors), citing security risks, while China accelerated self-reliance in chips and AI.
  • Phase One Deal: Signed January 2020, aimed to ease tensions with China pledging to buy US goods, but many core issues (tech transfers, subsidies) remain unresolved.
  • Economic Impact: Trade between the two dropped significantly; global tech markets faced uncertainty, with bystander nations like Vietnam and Taiwan gaining export shares.
  • Geopolitical Stakes: US seeks to maintain tech supremacy; China pursues its "Made in China 2025" plan to dominate high-tech industries, intensifying competition.
  • Biden Era: Continued Trump’s hardline stance, adding subsidies (e.g., CHIPS Act) to boost US tech, while China counters with its Dual Circulation Strategy.
  • Current State: As of 2025, a tech cold war persists, with both nations decoupling supply chains and racing for leadership in AI, quantum computing, and green tech.

Civil War in Myanmar : ​

  • Background: Myanmar’s civil war intensified after the February 1, 2021, military coup, when the Tatmadaw ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government, sparking nationwide protests.
  • Resistance Emerges: Peaceful demonstrations met brutal repression, leading to the formation of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) by the National Unity Government (NUG) in May 2021 to fight the junta.
  • Ethnic Alliances: Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) like the Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Liberation Army, long at odds with the military, allied with the PDF against the State Administration Council (SAC).
  • Major Offensive: Operation 1027, launched in October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, marked a turning point, seizing over 180 military outposts in Shan State.
  • Territorial Losses: By 2025, the junta controls only 21% of Myanmar’s territory, with rebels holding 42%, per BBC estimates, including key border areas.
  • Humanitarian Crisis: Over 50,000 killed, 3 million displaced, and 18.6 million need aid, worsened by a March 2025 earthquake (7.7 magnitude) killing over 3,100.
  • Junta Response: The military uses airstrikes, forced conscription, and restricts aid, despite losing ground and morale.
  • Current State: Entering its fifth year, the war shows no end, with rebels nearing Mandalay, but China pressures for ceasefires to protect its interests.

Bangladesh crisis ​

  • Background: Bangladesh’s crisis erupted in July 2024 when student protests against a government job quota system, favoring descendants of 1971 war veterans, escalated into a broader anti-government movement.
  • Leadership Change: On August 5, 2024, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India after 15 years in power, following violent clashes that killed over 400 people, ending her increasingly authoritarian rule.
  • Interim Government: Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge of an interim government, tasked with restoring stability and preparing for elections by late 2025 or early 2026, amid calls for democratic reforms.
  • Economic Fallout: The unrest has crippled the economy, with inflation hitting 11.66% in July 2024, a $24 billion loss reported, and the garment sector—85% of exports—facing disruptions, exacerbating forex reserve declines.
  • Social Unrest: Attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus, have surged, alongside widespread anarchy, challenging the interim government’s control and raising human rights concerns.
  • Geopolitical Implications: India monitors border security, fearing refugee influx and radicalization, while China and Pakistan may leverage the instability, complicating regional dynamics.
  • Current State: Eight months post-Hasina, Bangladesh grapples with chaos, economic collapse, and a fragile transition, with no clear resolution in sight.

Ambitions in the Arctic ​

  • Climate Change Catalyst: Rapid Arctic warming, up to four times the global rate, melts sea ice, opening new shipping routes and exposing resources, intensifying geopolitical interest.
  • Resource Wealth: The Arctic holds an estimated 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas, plus rare earth minerals, driving economic ambitions among Arctic and non-Arctic states.
  • Russia’s Dominance: With the longest Arctic coastline, Russia militarizes the region, modernizes its Northern Fleet, and develops the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a global trade artery.
  • China’s Polar Silk Road: China, a self-proclaimed “near-Arctic state,” invests in infrastructure and research, seeking resource access and NSR influence, despite tensions with Russia’s control.
  • U.S. and NATO Response: The U.S. enhances its Arctic military presence (e.g., Greenland’s Pituffik base), while Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession strengthens Western alignment against Russia.
  • Territorial Disputes: Overlapping claims under UNCLOS by Russia, Canada, and Denmark (via Greenland) over the continental shelf fuel tensions, particularly around the North Pole.
  • Arctic Council Strain: Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion halted cooperation in this key governance body, splitting the “Arctic 7” from Moscow.
  • Strategic Competition: Militarization risks escalation, yet economic cooperation persists, balancing rivalry with the need for sustainable development amid environmental fragility.

Greenland geopolitical situation ​

  • Strategic Location: Greenland’s position between North America and Russia in the Arctic makes it a critical geopolitical asset for monitoring and controlling Arctic routes and threats.
  • Historical Context: Part of Denmark since 1721, Greenland gained autonomy in 1979 and self-governance in 2009, though Denmark retains control over defense and foreign affairs.
  • U.S. Interest: The U.S. has maintained a military presence since WWII, notably at Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule), vital for missile defense and Arctic surveillance.
  • Trump’s Proposal: President Trump has repeatedly suggested acquiring Greenland, citing national security and resource potential, sparking outrage in Denmark and Greenland.
  • Resource Wealth: Melting ice reveals vast reserves of rare earth minerals, oil, and gas, drawing interest from the U.S., China, and the EU for economic and strategic leverage.
  • China’s Ambitions: Beijing seeks influence via mining investments and a “Polar Silk Road,” though U.S. pressure has limited its foothold.
  • Independence Movement: Greenlanders favor gradual independence, with the 2025 election highlighting pro-business parties balancing autonomy with economic stability.
  • NATO Dynamics: As a Danish territory, Greenland bolsters NATO’s Arctic presence amid rising tensions with Russia, intensified by the Ukraine war.
  • Climate Change: Warming opens shipping lanes and resources, amplifying competition among global powers.

Shabelle Offensive in Somalia ​

Beginning in February 2025, the jihadist militant group al-Shabaab launched a major offensive in central Somalia, targeting regions such as Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, and Hiran. The group aims to encircle the capital, Mogadishu, and reclaim territories lost in previous years. This has led to intensified clashes with the Somali National Army and African Union forces, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region.

Goma Offensive in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ​

In early 2025, the Rwandan-backed rebel group March 23 Movement (M23) seized significant territories in North and South Kivu provinces, including areas surrounding the city of Goma. This escalation has raised concerns about a potential regional war and has displaced millions, contributing to severe food insecurity and humanitarian challenges.

Sudan's Internal Conflict ​

Fighting between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army has intensified, leading to the displacement of approximately 12 million people and acute food shortages affecting more than half of the population. The conflict threatens to destabilize neighboring countries and has resulted in severe humanitarian crises, including famine conditions in parts of the Darfur region.

Houthi Strikes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden ​

Increased militant activity by Houthi forces against shipping in these strategic waterways has triggered intensified military engagement by countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, affecting international trade routes.

Venezuela-Guyana Border Dispute ​

The long-standing territorial dispute over the Essequibo region has reignited tensions between Venezuela and Guyana, posing risks of military confrontation and regional instability in South America.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Crisis ​

Ongoing tensions and sporadic clashes along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, particularly over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, continue to threaten peace in the South Caucasus, despite international mediation efforts.

Baltic Sea Tensions ​

The Baltic region has emerged as a potential flashpoint following incidents such as the damage to the Estlink-2 undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia. Finnish authorities detained a Russian-linked vessel, leading to accusations of "piracy" from Russia and increased naval deployments in the area.